Monday, June 18, 2012
Hellenic Deja Vu
So Sunday's come and gone..
Big election happened in Greece-- was in all the papers and TV news.. The battle between the "good guys" - the conservative New Democracy Party who was pro bailout (Hip Horray! Hurrah!!) and the "baddies" -- the "radical", "leftist", "extremist", "Communist" (add your 'evil' label here) Syriza Party who wanted to stop the austerity (Boo Boo! Hiss Hiss!!)
Funny that as fully grown, functioning adults, we are treated like stupid, mindless, imbecilic children every time we watch or read the news as they tell us who the 'heroes' and 'villians' of the story will be... Even funnier that we willingly accept it.
So.. What happened yesterday?
Well.. Pretty much the exact same thing that happened back in May. The deeply frightened elderly (old people hate change even for their benefit) sided with New Democracy and that tipped things to their favor. Syriza came in 2nd.
So now New Democracy needs to form a coalition. The goal would be to bypass the Syriza party by aligning itself with the PASOK party which came in 3rd. Simple..
So there you have it.. Nothing's changed.
Ultimately New Democracy will fail, Syriza will get next dibs and equally fail.. then PASOK and before you know it... elections in August..
Oh what fun!
Of course Greece has just about enough money to last till mid July without more assistance.. Assistance that the EU does not want to give unless the terms of the bailout are agreed to.. Terms that won't be agreed to because there's no coalition politically who can form an official government.
And round n round she goes.. where it stops, no one knows..
We wonder how markets will react.. We hope Poorly..
In other words, Investors are hoping/expecting more market intervention.
But Syriza did not win.. and there is no instant immediate threat of Euro collapse.. No immediate threat that austerity will be outright rejected.. So where's the urgent threat of market instability now??
You now have potentially another 6-8 weeks of uncertainty... Of course Investors will tune Greece out and focus on profit making.. they've done so before.. But overall, the maggots who make a living trading Hate uncertainty..
And we mean H-A-T-E it! So this will cause quite a market ripple.
Add the possibility that the Fed announces no QE this coming week, and the Wall St Investor vermin will be tearing their hair out in utter frustration...
Unfortunately its not.. it just goes on and on.. Up, Down.. Down, Up..
Never an endpoint.. Never an endgame.
So in summary, what can we take from all this Greek drama?
Well, the nation and by extension the global economy is at an impasse. There could be 50 elections in Greece and the outcome won't be different.
You have a segment of the population who understands how vital it is for them to stop the austerity madness that's decimating their nation, and a segment scared shitless by all the propaganda of a Euro-less nation, and voting in fear.
Meanwhile as we said before, Greece is going to be 100% out of money in 3-4 weeks and as much as the EU would love to step away and let Greece be destroyed, they can't due to the collective tens of Trillions of Euros and Dollars in debt exposure and credit-default-swap insurance that would have to be paid out if Greece was allowed to crash & burn.
Someone, somewhere is going to have to compromise in some fashion...
Who makes the move.. Syriza, New Democracy, the EU, IMF.. who knows
One thing is for Absolute certain and you mark our words on this.. By November, once the US Presidential election has concluded, America will bail out EU.
Yes.. we said it correctly.. bail out the entire European Union. Right now the hope for Obama is Merkel can keep it all together for another 4-5 months and do whatever need be done to prevent total implosion (or explosion... either way its bad)
The bailout can't be before November.. it would cause such outrage and fury among voters that Obama would absolutely lose. But after the election, when the President has either won or becomes a lame duck, and thus politically untouchable, it Will be done...
And the System will win again at our expense because those who run the banks and the governments Are the System